The Blackhawks' Hidden Gem
By Trey Elder Jul 30, 2024
This article wasn’t supposed to be about one player. I originally intended it to be a breakdown of who the best defensive defenseman was during the 2023-2024 regular season. As I queried data tables, many of the names I saw near the top of statistical categories were who you might expect to come up when discussing the best defensive defensemen, players like Drew Doughty, Josh Morrissey, and Gustav Forsling. However, there was one name that kept popping up that I did not expect to see. Not because the player is bad, in fact after writing this article I’m convinced of quite the opposite. It was because he is so young and plays for such a terrible team that I thought there would be no way he’d find himself lodged in between some of the biggest and best names in the sport. But the deeper I dug, the more sure I was that I had to make this player the focus of the article because I wanted to draw attention to a player that I feel like, up until this point, has gotten very little. That player is Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Alex Vlasic. He’s a 23-year old second-round pick from 2019 who just finished his first full season in the NHL. And despite not even having 100 games of NHL experience at the writing of this article, Vlasic put up unbelievable individual numbers considering his team was a complete disaster, finishing 31st in the league standings.
What initially made Vlasic catch my eye was his extremely good team-relative statistics that indicated he outplayed his teammates by leaps and bounds this season. The statistic I derived to measure this is what I call “goals against below team per 60 minutes” (I’ll refer to it as GBT60 from here on out). It’s intended to measure how good a defenseman is relative to the rest of their team. If a player’s score is positive, then when they are on the ice, their team gives up that many less goals compared to when they are off the ice. If a player’s score is negative, then their team gives up that many more goals when they are on the ice than when they are off. This can help identify which players are the driving force of their team’s defense. For example, even though the Winnipeg Jets were one of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season, Josh Morrissey has an all-situations GBT60 score of 0.63 while Neal Pionk has a value of -0.95. This implies that Morrissey contributed more defensive value to Winnipeg’s team than did Pionk. It doesn’t mean that Pionk was bad this season, just that Morrissey was better. The statistic is also perfect for identifying good players on bad teams, which was exactly the case with Vlasic.
GBT60 Formula**
Out of all 73 defensemen this season who played at least 65 games and averaged at least 20 minutes of ice time per game, Vlasic ranked tied for third with an all-situations GBT60 of 0.78, slightly ahead of this year’s Norris trophy winner, Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes. The only two names Vlasic finished lower than? Former Norris trophy winners Drew Doughty and Adam Fox. At 5 on 5, amongst all 115 defenders who averaged at least 15 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time per game, Vlasic ranked first with a GBT60 of 1.08. And out of 67 defenders who played at least 2 minutes per game on the penalty kill, he ranked third with a GBT60 of 3.62. Vlasic was the only player to finish in the 95th percentile or higher in all three categories. No defenseman in the league this year outplayed their teammates at as consistently high of a level as Alex Vlasic outplayed the rest of the Chicago Blackhawks D-core.
Top 10 Defensemen Ranked by GBT60
| Rank | Team | Name | GBT60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAK | Drew Doughty | 0.90 |
| 2 | NYR | Adam Fox | 0.84 |
| T-3 | CHI | Alex Vlasic | 0.78 |
| T-3 | DAL | Thomas Harley | 0.78 |
| 5 | LAK | Mikey Anderson | 0.70 |
| 6 | VAN | Quinn Hughes | 0.66 |
| 7 | WPG | Josh Morrissey | 0.63 |
| 8 | CHI | Seth Jones | 0.57 |
| 9 | EDM | Evan Bouchard | 0.54 |
| 10 | NJD | Luke Hughes | 0.53 |
To be eligible, players must have played at least 65 games and averaged at least 20 minutes TOI per game.
Top 10 Defensemen Ranked by GBT60 at 5v5
| Rank | Team | Name | GBT60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | Alex Vlasic | 1.08 |
| 2 | NYR | Adam Fox | 0.92 |
| 3 | ARI | Juuso Valimaki | 0.91 |
| 4 | CHI | Seth Jones | 0.86 |
| 5 | PIT | Ryan Graves | 0.83 |
| 6 | LAK | Drew Doughty | 0.78 |
| T-7 | NJD | Luke Hughes | 0.63 |
| T-7 | LAK | Mikey Anderson | 0.63 |
| 9 | FLA | Gustav Forsling | 0.57 |
| T-10 | NSH | Ryan McDonagh | 0.56 |
| T-10 | OTT | Jake Sanderson | 0.56 |
To be eligible, players must have played at least 65 games and averaged at least 15 minutes TOI at 5v5 per game.
Top 10 Defensemen Ranked by GBT60 on the Penalty Kill
| Rank | Team | Name | GBT60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPG | Brenden Dillon | 3.83 |
| 2 | TOR | Jake McCabe | 3.67 |
| 3 | CHI | Alex Vlasic | 3.62 |
| 4 | PIT | Kris Letang | 3.24 |
| 5 | MIN | Jake Middleton | 2.72 |
| 6 | PIT | Marcus Pettersson | 2.59 |
| 7 | LAK | Drew Doughty | 2.47 |
| 8 | ANA | Radko Gudas | 2.39 |
| 9 | CHI | Seth Jones | 2.36 |
| 10 | OTT | Artem Zub | 2.27 |
To be eligible, players must have played at least 65 games and averaged at least 2 minutes TOI shorthanded per game.
Just to make sure that these numbers aren’t flukes and Vlasic isn’t getting bailed out by great goaltending, I tried removing goalie play from the equation by substituting goals against for expected goals against in the GBT60 formula to create “expected goals against below team per 60 minutes'', or XGBT60. This helps control for variability in goaltending performance because it does not take into account whether or not the chance actually resulted in a goal, just the quality of the chance itself. This will help get a better sense of the disparity between Vlasic's ability to prevent quality scoring opportunities and that of his teammates.
The results are equally as impressive. Using the same criteria as with GBT60 rankings, Vlasic was tied for twelfth in all-situations XGBT60, first again at 5 on 5, and second on the penalty kill. These numbers show that Vlasic’s exceptional empirical ranks are not the result of him getting luckier than his teammates in terms of the saves his goaltenders are providing him, but as a result of him actually allowing a lower quality of scoring opportunities. It means he really is that much better than the rest of his team.
Alex Vlasic's GBT60 Rankings
| All Situations | 5v5 | Penalty Kill | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBT60 | T-3 | 1 | 3 |
| XGBT60 | T-12 | 1 | 2 |
However, it’s important to remember that all the statistics I’ve used thus far have been team-relative. They compare a player to their team and as we’ve already stated, Vlasic’s team was really bad. Let’s look at how his raw numbers compare with the rest of the league.
In goals against per 60 minutes in all situations, Vlasic ranked 29th of 73* with 2.98. That obviously isn’t elite, but it’s still impressive considering that the average Blackhawks defenseman had a goals against per 60 of 3.73, which was the worst in the entire NHL. Additionally, the only two players ranked ahead of him whose team missed the playoffs are Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram of the Buffalo Sabres, who finished the season with 84 points. Vlasic’s Blackhawks finished with 52. At 5 on 5, Vlasic was 38th of 115* in goals against per 60 and 26th of 67 on the penalty kill. Again, these aren’t elite numbers, but they are pretty good for a young player on a team that gave up the second most 5 on 5 goals and the eighth most power play goals this season. Also, his goals against per 60 rank at 5 on 5 is higher than that of Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Kris Letang, and Cale Makar. And that isn’t a team-relative stat, at 5 on 5 he was legitimately better defensively this year than all those names.
A potential explanation for this is that Vlasic is already adept at not allowing his opponents high-percentage shots. He is tied for the eighth-fewest high-percentage shots against per 60 minutes with 3.20. At 5 on 5, he ranks 25th and shorthanded he ranks 3rd*. Also, when he is on the ice, the percentage of shot attempts by opponents that are high danger attempts is the sixth lowest in all situations, and the percentage of low danger shot attempts by opponents is the 20th best in all situations*, meaning he does a good job of keeping opponents to the outside and not allowing them to get to prime scoring areas. Again, not all of these numbers are amazing, but I don’t think I can overstate how impressive it is to consistently be in the top half to top third of the league and occasionally be right at the top in your first full season for one of its worst teams.
It’s not like Vlasic is getting easy assignments either. His defensive zone start percentages (how often his shifts begin in the defensive zone) are 88% when shorthanded, 32% at 5v5, and 41% overall, which are all in the top ten (T-10, T-8, T-7, respectively)*. For context of the level of difficulty that is being thrust upon him, this year’s Norris winner, Quinn Hughes, started just 23% of his 5v5 shifts in the defensive zone. Vlasic is getting tough assignments and big responsibility on a bad team and putting up numbers that, compared to the rest of the league, are pretty good, and compared to the rest of his team, are unbelievably good.
Some may raise the question of whether it’s possible that Vlasic’s numbers are slightly inflated by playing almost two thirds of the season with experienced veteran Seth Jones. If you noticed, Jones also finished in the top 10 in GBT60 for all three categories. However, Jones’ XGBT60 numbers were not nearly as good as Vlasic’s (some are even negative) and it is worth noting that Vlasic ranked higher than Jones in literally every statistical category that I mentioned in this article. This likely means that Vlasic is doing better in his minutes away from Jones than Jones is doing in his minutes away from Vlasic, and Jones’s time spent playing with other d-partners is dragging down his overall numbers as a result. It seems to be the case that despite the gap in experience, the 23 year-old second-year pro is making the 29 year-old, $9.5 million per year defensemen look better than he really should.
Vlasic isn't quite elite defensively yet, but if he was going to be someday, this is the kind of start that would give you hope that he could. And fresh off signing a six-year extension this summer with an AAV of $4.6 million, if he makes the kind of improvements in his game you would expect from a young defenseman figuring out the NHL game, his contract will be a bargain for years to come. His offensive game is still a work in progress and has some upside, but my prediction is that when Chicago becomes good again, Vlasic will be relied on for more of a shutdown role where his defensive prowess can really shine. So while Blackhawks fans may hope that 2022 first-round pick Kevin Korchinski eventually becomes their new Duncan Keith, Alex Vlasic has the potential to be their new Niklas Hjalmarsson, a great defensive stopper who was a fixture in the Hawks’ top-4 during their modern dynasty in the early 2010s. And I personally am very excited to see just how good he’ll become.
*These ranks are out of player who meet the following criteria: For all-situations ranks, the players must have played at least 65 games and averaged at least 20 minutes TOI per game. For 5 on 5 ranks, the players must have played at least 65 games and have averaged at least 15 minutes of 5 on 5 TOI per game. For penalty kill ranks, the players must have played at least 65 games and averaged at least 2 minutes of shorthanded TOI per game. There were 73 players who met the all-situations criteria, 115 who met the 5 on 5 criteria, and 67 who met the penalty kill criteria. This is intended to prevent unfair comparison between players who player greater roles and those who play lesser roles.
**Off-Ice Time and On-Ice Time are measured in seconds.